Latest Indiana & North Carolina Polls – Obama vs. Clinton

Again, polls don’t mean everything, but here are the most recent ones from Indiana:

In this poll, the Clinton number is first.

RCP Average 04/23 – 05/01 47.1-43.0 Clinton +4.1

Zogby 04/30 – 05/01 680 LV 42 42 Tie

Rasmussen 04/29 – 04/29 400 LV 46 41 Clinton +5.0

TeleResearch 04/25 – 04/29 943 LV 48 38 Clinton +10.0

PPP (D) 04/27 – 04/28 1347 LV 50 42 Clinton +8.0

SurveyUSA 04/25 – 04/27 628 LV 52 43 Clinton +9.0

Howey-Gauge 04/23 – 04/24 600 LV 45 47 Obama +2.0

Research 2000 04/23 – 04/24 400 LV 47 48 Obama +1.0

LV = Likely voters

Survey USA’s last poll had Clinton up by 16%, now she’s up by 9% in that poll. It appears that Clinton had the momentum earlier in the week but polls are now tilting towards Obama.

Here are the North Carolina polls:

In this poll, the Obama number is first.

RCP Average 04/10 – 04/21 49.0%- 40.6% Obama +8.4

Zogby 04/30 – 05/01 668 LV 50 34 Obama +16.0

Research 2000 04/29 – 04/30 500 LV 51 44 Obama +7.0

Mason-Dixon 04/28 – 04/29 400 LV 49 42 Obama +7.0

Insider Advantage 04/29 571 LV 42 44 Clinton +2.0

SurveyUSA 04/26 – 04/28 727 LV 49 44 Obama +5.0

Rasmussen 04/28 – 04/28 774 LV 51 37 Obama +14.0

PPP (D) 04/26 – 04/27 1121 LV 51 39 Obama +12.0

After next Tuesday, there are only 217 pledged delegates up for grabs. If Obama does well or wins both states, the rest of the superdelegates could pledge as early and Wed according to various outlets. If not, expect more of the same.

None of the polls are new enough to show the effect of Indiana superdelegate and former DNC chair Joe Andrew switching his endorsement from Clinton to Obama. As said in this article:

“This was a real stunner, and it’s gotten an enormous amount of attention,” Larry Sabato, a national political analyst at the University of Virginia, said of Andrew’s announcement.

“It’s not that the general population has a clue who Joe Andrew is, it’s just that the activists do — (and) the super activists are the superdelegates. For that reason, his decision has really sent shockwaves through the Clinton campaign.”

Obama also picked up the endorsement of US Rep. Baron Hill (he represents Indiana’s conservative 9th district in southern Indiana), and Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel (Mayor of the largest city in southern Indiana). Southern Indiana is home to many conservative voters that may hold the key who wins or loses this election results.

No polls exist in Guam, although there are 4 pledged delegates up for grabs on Saturday.

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