A Final Analysis

This morning I’ve been doing what I do post-election. I always analyze the numbers, with a focus on the larger Southern Dallas Council Districts (3,4,5,7, and 8).

Here are the breakouts. They are not “official” county numbers, but you have to know the little pockets of Oak Cliff and South Dallas to break out some of the precincts. To give you a feel about these margins, the districts not listed below won by an average of 400 votes. However, if you take out Districts 9 and 14 Vote No was far ahead on the averages. This is as in-depth of an analysis as you’ll see out there.

(The ‘Precincts Won’ are the amount won by the Vote No side)

District 3 TOTAL
For (Vote Yes) 6104 ; 46.7%
Against (Vote No) 6956; 53.3%
Precincts Won 37 of 74; 50%
Margin: 852 votes

District 4 TOTAL
For (Vote Yes) 2352 ; 45.4%
Against (Vote No) 2828; 54.6%
Precincts Won 26 of 35; 74.3%
Margin: 476 votes

District 5 TOTAL
For (Vote Yes) 2823 ; 47.2%
Against (Vote No) 3157; 54.6%
Precincts Won 24 of 34; 70.6%
Margin: 334 votes

District 7 TOTAL
For (Vote Yes) 1854 ; 45.4%
Against (Vote No) 1526 ; 54.6%
Precincts Won 7 of 38; 18.4%
Margin: 328 for Vote Yes

District 8 TOTAL
For (Vote Yes) 1533 ; 48.3%
Against (Vote No) 1640; 51.7%
Precincts Won 15 of 36; 41.7%
Margin: 107 votes

South Dallas was the only place in the south that Vote Yes won a significant number of precincts. They did do well in some pockets of District 3 and 8. The margins in Council Districts 3 (Dave Neumann) and 4 (Dwaine Caraway) had margins that were higher than the average.

Anyone that says that this wasn’t a hard-fought election was kidding themselves. It wasn’t a “civic smackdown” as was written in one article today. What this race came down to, as many races do, is the actual campaigning. And it’s about winning the precincts that matter.

And this is clearly where Dwaine Caraway shined. From sending specific people in certain neighborhoods to glad-handing at polling places. He wasn’t just working District Four, he was all over southern Dallas. You now know what I know – Dwaine is the best campaigner in southern Dallas and one of the best in the City. I think the best are Carol & Laura Reed, Dwaine, Ed Valentine, and Rob Allyn. Caraway put people in the places they needed to be, and his “in-game” adjustments are always the best. Hate all you want, but he is the Michael Jordan of the southern campaign game and the numbers always bear out. His team wins, and people all over the city are noticing.

The people involved can make or break elections. And there you have it.

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